New Poll Puts Meed Ward Just Five Points Ahead in Burlington's Mayoral Race

A new poll from Liaison Strategies has incumbent mayor Marianne Meed Ward leading the race by five points, with 38 per cent support among decided and leaning voters as of mid-August. Rory Nisan sits at 33 per cent, Lisa Kearns at 23 per cent, and six per cent went to someone else. Kearns and Nisan are both sitting councillors.

The same poll found the city itself split on direction: half of respondents said Burlington is headed the wrong way, 35 per cent said the opposite, and 15 per cent weren't sure. Close to one in five voters remain undecided overall.

Methodology, for the record: Liaison surveyed 515 Burlington residents from August 7 to 11 using automated phone polling across landlines and cellphones, reached through random digit dialing.

Here's where it gets more interesting than a standard horse-race number. Kearns raised questions about who paid for the poll, alleging her team's early research points to it being commissioned through Nisan's campaign. Nisan denies commissioning it. Liaison says the work was done for The Campaign Shop, a political consulting firm that offers services including polling to various clients — and Liaison's principal, David Valentin, called the idea that Nisan commissioned it inaccurate. Meed Ward, for her part, said the questions about who's behind the poll and its methodology deserve answers the community would welcome.

Beyond the poll fight, the three candidates are drawing real lines on a live issue: a proposed data centre in Burlington. Kearns has pushed at city hall for more information on its broader impacts, a position Meed Ward has echoed in calling for more transparency. Nisan's campaign site says any data centre proposal needs to deliver tangible value for residents, though he's also pointed to a warning from the Burlington Chamber of Commerce's CEO that a moratorium risks making the city look like an unreliable partner to business.

On the "wrong direction" numbers, Kearns points to what she calls unchecked strong-mayor powers and municipal budgets outpacing what residents can absorb, adding that she thinks city hall has stopped listening to residents. Nisan takes a different angle, arguing voters are careful and doing their homework, while acknowledging dissatisfaction over rising taxes and calling for better progress on fiscal responsibility, affordability, safety, and quality of life. Meed Ward's response leans on what she hears directly from residents — appreciation for the city and, in her account, general satisfaction with how this council has handled issues like housing affordability, growth management, value for tax dollars, and public safety.

The practical dates to know: the deadline to file or withdraw a nomination for mayor, council, or school board trustee is Friday, August 21 at 2 p.m. The municipal election itself is October 26.

Polls are a snapshot, not a verdict — the one that counts is still more than two months out.

Details sourced from The Hamilton Spectator's reporting. This is an active election race; confirm any developments directly with campaigns or official sources before the vote.